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Prediction for CME (2026-06-03T11:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-03T11:48Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46601/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the north/northwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 imagery, and to the northeast in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an X1.0 flare and subsequent eruption from Active Region 14455 (N14W16) starting around 2026-06-03T11:20Z as seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304, GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304, and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery. The associated ejecta displays a southeast deflection as seen in SDO AIA 304 imagery. A faint EUV wave is observed moving northwest of the eruption site, however, in SDO AIA 193 imagery. L1 arrival is likely to be 3 merged CMES 2026-06-03T11:48Z, 2026-06-03T07:23Z, 026-06-03T01:53Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-06-05T04:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-04T23:44Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/46624/1
Model Inputs:
2026-06-03T01:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=14.0, Speed=1220.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2026-06-03T04:15Z
2026-06-03T07:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=52.0, Speed=1474.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2026-06-03T09:27Z
2026-06-03T11:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=32.0, Speed=1433.0, HalfAngle=37.0, Time21.5=2026-06-03T13:49Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-06-04T23:44Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =24.2 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.4
(kp)90=6
(kp)180=8

Other Location(s) Impact:
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-06T11:49Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-05T14:55Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-05T13:58Z
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-06T12:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260603_041500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260603_041500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260603_041500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260603_041500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260603_041500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260603_041500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260603_041500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260603_041500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260603_041500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260603_041500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260603_041500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260603_041500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260603_041500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260603_041500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260603_041500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260603_041500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 34.28 hour(s)
Difference: 4.65 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2026-06-03T18:06Z

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